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HANDICAPPING THE PRESEASON

Most professional handicappers believe NFL preseason games can be quite profitable. But you must be selective. NFL exhibitions are, after all, just games for television and advertising money. The key is betting on the side that will use the better players for that game.

THE PROGRESSION PRESEASON PLAN

Most NFL teams use the starters for the first couple of series or the first quarter in preseason game one, then the backups for a quarter-plus, then the reserves. In game two, starters go one or two quarters, then the backups play one-plus quarters, then the reserves and so on. Game three is really the dress rehearsal for the regular season, with the starters usually going into the third quarter. Backups go the rest of the way. In the final game, the starters play only briefly, if at all, with the backups and reserves going the rest of the way for those players on the bubble.

THE COACHES UNWRITTEN AGREEMENT

There is a gentleman's agreement among the coaches in the NFL preseason and it goes like this: "I will play my starters only against your starters, my backups against your backups, my reserves against your reserves and so on.” Plus, I will limit blitzes to obvious situations in the first two games. The good news is that not all the coaches agree to this all the time. Many coaches get pissed after a bad performance or two straight losses. Some coaches like to blitz any time they feel like it. And a few like to put in starters late to ensure a win.

ANGLES TO LOOK FOR

The use of better personnel is the biggest difference: either due to injury, competition, or quality depth, especially at quarterback. Most first time quarterbacks will struggle late in games giving more points to the opponent then themselves. Teams with one game under their belt fare better than ones playing for the first time. Teams starting off at 0-2 want the next one bad, because the last game is a throwaway before the season starts.

"THE LOCK OF THE YEAR"

Expectations! Most of us have them everyday, of ourselves as well as others. When these expectations are not met it results in disappointment. Depending on the level of our psychological health the end result is often resentment, anger, criticism, and blame.

The sports service industry provides a daily example of his psychology. The morning begins with services across merica professing the strength of their daily selections. These are hyped in words such as "Lock", "Can't Lose". "100* Play", ,or "90% Win Ratio". Along with inflated records, this advertising is meant to heighten the expectations of sports bettors whom they hope will purchase their selections. More often than the buyer "expects" the results are "disappointing". After dealing with "anger and resentment" he soothes himself with "criticism and blame" of the service from whom he bought the selections. In this way, along with intermittent positive reinforcement of winning streaks, he is invariably ready to repeat the cycle on a daily basis. Along with the undeniable anticipation leading to the thrill of victory or agony of defeat, it is a recipe that perpetuates the life of sports bettors who rely on the opinions of others. How did we get to this point in the evolution of the sports service industry?

The roots could be traced to the 1970s, the time when pioneers of the industry originated. Among the best known of the promoters was a Boston-based firm under the leadership of the Legendary Bob Dunbar. Their weekly newsletter was mailed to thousands, nationwide. Some even sent money for the right to read their promotional propaganda, which was among the best ever. It promised "inside information big game winners" on a weekly basis. It culminated with the "Lock of the Year" in early November. Their streak of 7 consecutive "Lock Winners" set the table for the promotion of "Big Game Locks" for an entire industry for the next decade. More importantly it created the aura of expectations ­ along with the underlying string of events that follow as outlined at the beginning of this article. The advent of the USA Today and ESPN in the era only served to heighten the anticipation.

Today, a generation of sports service users has become both more savvy and more cynical. For the most part the claims of Locks or Guaranteed Winners barely crosses their level of consciousness. Claims of long term winning percentages exceeding 70% are virtually ignored